It’s not the rain, it’s the temperature
Posted May 21, 2011 06:46:16 AM.
This article is more than 5 years old.
We may have unrealistic expectations when it comes to the weather for the Victoria Day weekend.
While many of us consider this to be the unofficial start to the summer, Mother Nature has a calendar of her own. And that calendar says that this is still a rainy season.
“It rains on about one third of the days in May, a total of about 12 days during the month,” notes Frank Seglenieks, co-ordinator of the weather station at the University of Waterloo. “So on a three-day weekend, on average, you should expect there is probably going to be at least one day of rain.”
Seglenieks says the big problem around the long weekend is managing expectations. Not only do we want the weather to be warm and sunny while we’re away from work but Seglenieks believes that we also “experience” more of the weather on the Victoria Day weekend because many of us may be making our first trip to a campsite or planning a weekend full of spring planting.
“It may not have been so great for the past couple weekends either but if it’s bad on the Victoria Day weekend, people are going to notice,” Seglenieks surmises. “And that’s going to stick with them.”
According to statistics kept at the UW weather station, about 60 per cent of our Victoria Day weekends have had at least one day of rain over the past 12 years.
While he defends the damp, Seglenieks suggests those looking for a weather-related beef can find one in the temperature. That’s where his records show we’ve really been lacking over time.
“I’ve found that about two thirds of the Victoria Day weekends in the past 12 years have been colder than average,” Seglenieks points out. “We would usually expect, based on averages, that only half the weekends should be colder than normal.”
The good news, according to Seglenieks, is that this Victoria Day weekend will fall into the “warmer than normal” category. On the downside, while it won’t rain all weekend, Seglenieks is not predicting extended periods of dry weather between now and Monday.
He says Saturday looks like our best bet for an extended period of sunshine.
