Flooding a risk amid February thaw and a rainy forecast

While the mountains of snow are melting, water levels are rising in the area.

All the recent warm weather has kick-started the spring thaw, prompting the Grand River Conservation Authority (GRCA) to issue a Watershed Conditions Statement – Flood Outlook.

The statement went into effect on Feb. 14 and will stay in place until Feb. 19.

It’s a warning of increased river flows throughout the watershed. But the uncertainty with the forecast is making it difficult to predict how the melt and any potential ice or rain may impact those flows.

Vahid Telaban, Director of Flood Operations, GRCA, told 570 NewsRadio, it’s not just increased water flow leading to the risk of flooding.

“There is also the possibility for ice jams. We have a lot of ice on our watercourses; all river systems are under heavy ice this year. So, if the temperatures increase in a short period of time, accompanied with some runoff as a result of rainfall or some snow melt, we are at risk of flood because of ice jams.”

The forecast for Wednesday is calling for rain with the risk of freezing rain, with temperatures hanging around the freezing mark.

Waterways will be moving faster than normal, and the banks will be very slippery. Telaban said extra caution is needed this time of year.

“We encourage the public to stay away from watercourses, waterways and specifically ice. Assume some weak ice in some areas and that might pose a threat to the public, both children and pets.”

Telaban said this is the second year in a row of above-average snowfall, so dealing with the runoff is nothing new for his teams. He said they’re prepared to mitigate flooding across the watershed.

“Our reservoirs are in the normal conditions based on their operating policy for this time of year. We have enough storage in the reservoirs to be able to manage potential flooding and reduce its consequences. We are monitoring conditions constantly, and we will operate the reservoirs as needed to reduce flooding.”

Given the uncertainty in the forecast, Telaban said the GRCA may need to update its conditions statement if and when conditions change. He’s advising the public to keep a close eye on GRCA communications for the latest information.