Are we going Green?
Posted Feb 1, 2011 04:39:11 AM.
This article is more than 5 years old.
Political observers are watching for an election call as early as this spring and if it does come, some believe the pressure is on the Green Party.
After working her way into the nationally televised debate in 2008, supporters of Green Party leader Elizabeth May are likely expecting her to make another significant step forward — and lead the party to its first seat in Ottawa.
Éric Grenier, who writes about politics and polls at www.ThreeHundredEight.com, believes the Green’s best shot at winning is in Guelph where, in the last election, Mike Nagy finished third in the riding with 21 per cent support, behind the Liberals at 32 per cent and the Conservatives at 29 per cent.
Dr. Rob Leone, a political scientist at Wilfrid Laurier University, acknowledges our region is particularly sympathetic to the Green Party platform.
“We are pretty well off in this region, which means we tend to think about issues that are important not just to our own self but to the good of the nation and the good of the community,” Leone explains. “And once you have that group of people who are willing to talk about those issues, you set yourself up for being open to issues like the environmental movement, which really is a movement that tries to make the best out of our country and our community.”
Despite the sympathetic ear found for green issues in this community, Leone is not convinced it will translate to success at the polls.
He likens the situation to that of the Reform Party in the late 1980s and early 1990s. The Reform Party, according to Leone, was able to rally people around an issue of frustration with Ottawa and a perceived alienation of the western provinces. But he says the Greens have no such rallying point.
Leone says all political parties struggle in some areas of the country, such as the Conservatives in Toronto and the Liberals in Alberta. But for the Greens, Leone says the struggles are nationwide.
“They tend not to have a lot of organization on the ground, a lot of money, or any star candidates,” Leone points out. “When you put all those things together, it’s diffcult for political parties to gain seats in areas where they haven’t before.”
As for whether or not we are even headed towards an election, Leone says there’s probably a “better than 50% chance” that we are. But rhetoric and campaign ads aside, Leone cites a number of provincial elections in Canada this fall as a potential stumbling block. He’s also not convinced all of the parties are interested in going to the polls.
