Would a Liberal victory lead to a national unity crisis? Data says no.

A recent op-ed by former Reform Party leader Preston Manning is fanning the flames of western succession rhetoric, as the country approaches the federal election day.

The opinion piece claimed that a Liberal victory would threaten national unity, which could result in western provinces like Alberta and Saskatchewan voting to leave the confederation.

However, recent polling data by the Angus Reed Institute indicates support for separation amongst western Canadians is lower now than it was in 2019.

Julie Simmons, Associate Professor, Department of Political Science, University of Guelph (UofG) was a guest on The Mike Farwell Show and said should those governments decide to take the separation question to the people, there would need to be a referendum, which is very different than a typical election.

“It would have to be, according to the supreme court, a clear majority on a clear question,” said Simmons. “That implies that it wouldn’t simply be a majority of 50 per cent plus one, and that the question asked would have to be ‘Do you want to separate?’ not something that was a little more vague as we saw in both referendums in Quebec.”

It’s not just Manning that has been talking about western separation, Alberta Premier Danielle Smith has alluded to it several times during the campaign. She went so far as to give a list of “demands” to Mark Carney after he was elected leader of the Liberal Party. She said the demands, all of them regarding the oil and gas industry, would have to be met by a Liberal government or risk succession.

Simmons said if the idea of separation is being used as a bargaining chip, those people are playing a dangerous game.

“It’s like, we won’t accept the results of this election unless you vote a certain way. And, I think that is a really disturbing narrative that is very anti-democratic, frankly.”

Simmons went on to say Manning’s assertions aren’t based in reality, “He does not have the polling data to back-up what he is claiming would happen.”

Simmons added, “(The data shows) that in every single western province, more people think their province is better off in Canada than going it alone. And, we know that by polling data done by Environics and the Confederation of Tomorrow Institute. So, Preston Manning is not speaking on behalf of most westerners.”