Conservatives making gains: projection
Posted Feb 16, 2011 04:19:58 PM.
This article is more than 5 years old.
A projection based on two national opinion polls suggests the federal Conservatives may have a shot at winning a majority government.
The Laurier Institute for the Study of Public Opinion and Policy analyzed polling done between the 4th and 10th of February and found that the Conservatives would win 152 seats if an election were held today.
That’s three seats shy of a majority government.
“The numbers have been fairly static since the 2008 election,” says Barry Kay, an associate of LISPOP and political science professor at Wilfrid Laurier University.
“This has been the most dramatic increase for the Conservatives in that time.”
Kay says the Tories have gained the equivalent of eight seats, mostly in the ‘905’ area surrounding Toronto.
The analysis projected the Liberals would win 73 seats, the NDP would get 30 and the Bloc Quebecois, 53.
It was based on polls conducted by Ipsos Reid and EKOS Research Associates with a blended sample of 2,650 individuals.
Kay says the projection is a way of educating the public, to understand what polling data means in terms of what the House of Commons would look like.
