Professor with U of G using AI tool to track potential measles outbreaks

A professor with the Univeristy of Guelph is hoping a new tool powered by artificial intelligence can help track and forecast potential measles outbreaks.

It comes as the region warns of potential public exposure, confirming 14 cases of measles across the municipality since March 21.

The tool, called AI4Casting Hub, is focused around an interactive dashboard that uses artificial intelligence to combine and analyze research, submitted data, and more to help track and even predict the growth and rate of various diseases.

While measles is top-of-mind right now throughout the country, it can similarly work for other diseases, including flu, Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV), and others.

“This is a tool that actually has been tried and tested over the last, just over a decade by our colleagues at the CDC, the Center of Disease Control,” Monica G. Cojocaru, Professor of Mathematics with the University of Guelph and Director of AI4Casting Hub, said. “On their side, it’s called FluSight.”

She said that the method itself is not a new concept; it’s an innovation that can still be worked upon. It can have direct implications on the healthcare system, providing various current and possibly preventative numbers, she explained.

“Because measles is highly contagious, even a slight dip in vaccination coverage can increase the risk of outbreaks.”

“The dashboard lets anyone test different scenarios. With this tool, we visualize and understand just how critical vaccination rates, contact tracing speed, and public health interventions are in preventing outbreaks.”

While the direct implications show plenty of promise for those who regularly track and work to regulate measles cases in the community, Cojocaru said there are further aspects of the tool that are just as important. She mentioned that one additional use of the tool is that it can display the effects of vaccine hesitancy.

“Because measles is highly contagious, even a slight dip in vaccination coverage can increase the risk of outbreaks,” said Cojocaru. “Herd immunity requires around 95 per cent vaccine coverage, but even a drop to 85 per cent could trigger outbreaks.”

Cojocaru states that the development of applications and tools similar to AI4Casting Hub are important; constant communication will always be the key difference maker for families and healthcare professionals.

“Whenever we talk about an infectious disease, especially the aerial born ones, I think we have all went through the experience of COVID. Specifically, I think it’s important that we all remember the importance of contact tracing,” said Cojocaru. “It’s a lot of work involved, but it could be incredibly efficient.”

She said the tool is far from being fully complete, with updates being made on a regular basis to adapt the model. She added that, as of now, they are currently working to incorporate wastewater surveillance data and numbers on potential vaccination fatigue to better develop the tool.