Much at stake for two federal leaders in Monday’s federal byelections

There is a lot at stake in Monday’s byelections ahead of the next federal election and the outcomes could be a major boost or a significant blow to one or more of the parties in these tight races.

The Winnipeg vote in the riding of Elmwood – Transcona is considered to be a two-way battle between the NDP and the Conservatives while the Montreal riding of LaSalle-Émard-Verdun is seen as a three-way race between the Liberals, NDP and Bloc Quebecois.

If the NDP and Liberals prevail and win back the seats that they respectively held it will be a big sigh of relief for the Prime Minister and his team after facing intense questions of leadership over the summer after the Conservatives won the riding of Toronto-St. Paul’s in June.

If the Conservatives manage to steal the Winnipeg seat from the NDP it will further solidify the party’s strong lead over its opponents and raise questions about the NDP’s strength and strategy since this riding has historically been orange, winning 10 of the 11 general elections held in the riding since 1988. Leila Dance is the NDP candidate after Daniel Blaikie resigned his seat earlier this year to go work for the provincial NDP government of Wabanakwut “Wab” Kinew. Blaikie had held the seat since 2015 and his father, Bill Blaikie, was the MP for the riding from 1988 to 2008.

The Tories, however, have been working hard over the last couple of years to eat into the working-class base of the New Democrats. The Conservative candidate is Colin Reynolds while Ian MacIntyre is representing the Liberals in the riding.

If the NDP wins in Montreal it will be a big plus for the party in Quebec, which hasn’t had much success there since the Orange Wave of Jack Layton back in 2011. It’s a memory the party has been trying to tap into ahead of this vote to try and build some momentum from the basement of public support after ripping up the supply and confidence deal it had with the Liberals.

If the Liberals manage to lose the Montreal seat it will be another devastating hit to the party and the Prime Minister. Even though this riding has switched parties in the past, it was last held by former Justice Minister David Lametti and once held in a different form by former Prime Minister Paul Martin. Laura Palestini will attempt to hold the seat for the Liberals. Louis Ialenti is running for the Conservatives, Craig Sauvé is the NDP candidate while the Bloc Quebecois are represented by Louis-Philippe Sauvé.

Montreal is seen as another Liberal base and if they can’t win there then it may reignite leadership questions for Justin Trudeau at a time when he’s trying to hit the reset button and reenergize his team ahead of the next general election.

As was the case in the Toronto by-election, there will be a super-long ballot in Montreal with a record 91 names on the list as a group attempts to disrupt the process as a form of protest against the federal government’s lack of action on electoral reform. Elections Canada has said it is taking steps to try and mitigate the problems it faced in the Toronto vote which led the vote count to take more than seven hours in a nail-biter race which wasn’t officially decided until the next day.