CityNews-Leger poll finds federal election a two-horse race between Liberals and Conservatives

As the federal parties hit the campaign trail a new poll finds this election will likely be a two-horse race between the Liberals and Conservatives.

The CityNews-Leger poll finds four in 10 Canadians are prepared to cast their ballots for the Liberals while the Conservatives have the support of 37 per cent of decided voters.

It’s a stunning reversal of fortune for the Liberals who just three months ago seemed headed for political annihilation as the Conservatives enjoyed a 2-to-1 advantage in support across various polls. However, the resignation of Justin Trudeau and the election of Mark Carney as the new leader and the ongoing threat of an escalating tariff war with U.S. President Donald Trump appears to have breathed new life into the Liberals while the Conservatives struggle to try and pivot their messaging.

The poll finds the Liberals are the choice across most regions of the country except in Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba where the Conservatives enjoy overwhelming support. In Ontario – which just handed Doug Ford and the Progressive Conservatives a third straight majority mandate – the gap between the Liberals and Conservatives is just five points. In Quebec, the Liberals hold a 16-point advantage over the Bloc Quebecois while the Conservatives find themselves 24 points in arrears.

The biggest loser in all of this is the New Democratic Party, who since Christmas, have seen their support among Canadians crater. The poll finds that while the Conservatives and Liberals are holding on to their committed voters, almost 4 in 10 who support the NDP would migrate their vote towards the Liberals. In fact, 43 per cent of NDP voters say Mark Carney would make a better Prime Minister than their leader, Jagmeet Singh, who garnered 35 per cent support.

Carney also enjoys similar support among Canadians when it comes to the best candidate for Prime Minister, with 34 per cent naming the newly-minted Liberal leader as their choice while 30 per cent chose Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre. The leaders of the remaining three federal parties all registered single-digit support.

It should come as no surprise that the top issue on the minds of most Canadians is the relationship with the United States and Donald Trump’s tariff threat, which is followed closely by affordability and the economy. Of least importance were the carbon tax, crime and public safety – issues that Poilievre and the Conservatives had been using to build a sizeable lead over the Liberals under former leader Justin Trudeau but are now having a tough time pivoting away from in the wake of the U.S.-Canada trade war.

Between Carney and Poilievre, 37 per cent of Canadians see the Liberal leader as best-equipped to handle the fragile U.S.-Canada relationship while 30 per cent favour the Conservative leader. However, Poilievre is the slight choice over Carney when it comes to handling affordability and cost of living issues, 31 per cent to 28 per cent.

The poll was conducted between March 10-13, among 1,504 respondents as part of an online survey. The results have been weighted according to age, gender, region and education to ensure a representative sample of the Canadian population. A probability sample of this size would yield a margin of error of +/- 2.49 per cent.