Experts say Ontario’s excess electricity could short circuit Ford’s 25 per cent U.S. surcharge

We should get a clearer picture of the Ford government’s threat to apply tariffs and potentially cut off the electricity supply to U.S. border states in response to U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff threat against Canada.

On Monday, Premier Doug Ford and energy minister Stephen Lecce are expected to provide further details on Ontario’s plan to slap a 25 per cent surcharge on electricity supplied to neighbouring states Minnesota, Michigan and New York.

Ford confirmed the export tax last week, calling it an absolute shame but laying the blame squarely at the feet of President Trump.

“This whole thing with President Trump is an absolute mess,” a defiant Ford said, adding that the 30-day pause announced by the U.S. President will not affect his decision.

“We know what happened last time. He said 30 days, a week later, or two weeks later, he brings the tariffs back. You touch a stove once you get burnt, you don’t touch that stove again.”

However, some experts have questioned how effective the electricity threat will be on our American neighbours, pointing out that Ontario actually generates too much power. With no firm contracts with U.S. markets, electricity is simply offered up on demand, and an extra charge amounts to nothing.

“There are very serious questions about the feasibility of doing this,” Mark Winfield, the co-chair of the Sustainable Energy Initiative at York University, tells CityNews.

“In some cases, we’ve offered exports at what we call negative prices – we literally offer to pay people to take the power off our hands.”

The New York Independent System Operator (NYISO) – which operates the power grid in New York State – issued a statement, saying it had “serious concerns” that applying export tariffs to incoming electricity may have “serious adverse effects on reliability and wholesale electric markets.”

The NYISO claims duties would likely amount to tens of millions of dollars per year, but it did not say if that was due to possible surcharges from Ontario or having to buy electricity from elsewhere.

Winfield says states will simply look to other markets in the U.S. to try and make up whatever small shortfall they might have.