Canada can strike back swiftly if U.S. imposes tariffs, experts say

OTTAWA — If the U.S. follows through on President Donald Trump’s threat to impose massive tariffs on Canada as early as Saturday, Ottawa could hit back with retaliatory tariffs within hours or days, according to international trade lawyers.

Typically, Canada gives advance notice of any plan to impose tariffs and takes about a month to consult with industry representatives on tariff targets.

But William Pellerin of the law firm McMillan said that if the federal cabinet felt the need to respond quickly to a serious, immediate threat to the economy, it could order a return volley of tariffs against the U.S. within a day or two.

“The government could act very quickly, on the assumption that the work has been done to have the retaliation package ready to go,” he said.

While the finance department might not like it, the federal cabinet can skip the usual consultation period by simply issuing an order for new tariffs under section 53 of the Customs Tariff Act — without recalling Parliament.

Such an immediate response probably would consist of targeted countermeasures that are less likely to hurt Canadian firms and consumers. Those could be followed by a consultation period of a few weeks on a second wave of tariffs.

The first tariffs likely would target products from areas of the U.S. that are politically vital to Trump’s Republican party. The short list of tariff targets that officials floated in media leaks weeks ago included orange juice, which would deal a blow to Florida growers.

Paul Lalonde, a trade lawyer with Dentons, said federal tariff consultations with the private sector are “massively helpful” to businesses looking for alternative input sources and adjusting their operations “at breakneck speed.”

They’re also useful to the government, he said, because they help it measure the effect of tariffs on employment.

“There are some things you just cannot get from anywhere else and if you are going to get a tariff on that product, you may be actually biting your nose to spite your face and actually causing a plant to close here in Canada,” Lalonde said.

Canada could also deploy a rarely used tool: retroactive tariffs. Pellerin said those are less likely — and would be more complicated to implement — but would hit their intended targets harder.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has warned repeatedly that Trump’s 25 per cent tariffs would deliver an immediate blow to U.S. businesses and consumers that rely on Canadian products.

The White House press secretary said Tuesday that Trump was still considering implementing the tariffs on Saturday.

An executive order Trump signed soon after his return to office calls for studies on alleged unfair trade practices by Canada, Mexico and China, which are due by April 1.

With Trump’s tariff deadline just days away, it’s still not clear exactly how — or if — his administration would go about imposing across-the-board tariffs. The U.S. can launch tariffs immediately on national security grounds or go through a months-long regulatory process.

“We are in uncharted territory in terms of the Canada-U. S. relationship. I’ve been at this 30 years and I’ve never seen a dynamic like the one we have right now,” Lalonde said.

Trump’s nominee for commerce secretary Howard Lutnick suggested at his Senate confirmation hearing Wednesday that tariffs on Canada could come in two phases, with the first focused on border security and the second on trade irritants, such as access to Canada’s dairy market and auto manufacturing.

Finance Minister Dominic LeBlanc has said Canada has various options at the ready for different tariff scenarios but has not said which way the government is leaning.

The federal government has committed $1.3 billion to shoring up border security.

Trump has indicated he’s willing to use the International Emergency Economic Powers Act to impose tariffs quickly, bypassing the usual regulatory channels.

Trump threatened Colombia with massive tariffs under that law earlier this week, when Colombia had refused to take deportation flights of migrants on military aircraft because it would be too degrading.

Colombia’s foreign ministry eventually announced it would accept the flights and use the presidential plane to ferry them back.

Trump’s White House declared victory.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Jan. 29, 2025.

Kyle Duggan, The Canadian Press