High stakes for both PCs and Liberals in upcoming Milton byelection

We’re less than a week away from a pair of provincial byelections that could further set the tone for the next provincial election in two years time.

Byelections will be held May 2 in Lambton-Kent-Middlesex, which has been vacant following the resignation of Monte McNaughton who left the Ford government to work for Woodbine Entertainment, and Milton. That vacancy was triggered in January when another cabinet minister, Parm Gill, resigned to run for the federal Conservatives in the same riding.

While the byelections will not change the balance of power in the legislature, there is still a lot at stake for Premier Doug Ford and new Liberal Leader Bonnie Crombie. While Lambton-Kent-Middlesex is a safe bet to remain in Conservative hands, recent polling numbers suggest it’s anybody’s race to win in Milton.

“If Doug Ford is going to be re-elected, he has to be re-elected in places like Milton, he can’t really lose too many seats like this,” David Valentin of Liaison Strategies tells CityNews.

In 2022, the Conservatives took the riding by just 1,600 votes ahead of the Liberals. Recent polling numbers from Liason Strategies and Mainstreet Research taken within the last week show a neck-and-neck race between Liberal candidate Galen Naidoo Harris and Zee Hamid of the Conservatives.

“This is a very key warning sign if he loses this, that maybe that critical 905 belt, not just Milton, but also Mississauga, Brampton, Durham, York, that those seats could also be in play,” said Valentin.

Conservative strategist Andrew Brander with Crestview Strategy notes the Ford government has thrown significant resources at the Milton seat including building all-day, two-way GO train service to the region. Cabinet ministers and Ford himself have been seen going door-to-door to support Hamid, who up until a few weeks ago was an active member of the Liberal party.

“I think the government has to be paying very close attention to what’s happening in Milton,” said Brander. “To have a sitting cabinet minister give up his seat to seek a federal nomination in the same riding is something that is very uncommon and really speaks to the fact that they’ll want to retain that seat.”

For Crombie, the byelection will be a key test of her leadership and whether it was the right call for her to opt out of running in Milton where she could have gained a seat in the legislature. The Liberals are also feeling a boost having won a pair of byelections last July in Scarborough-Guildwood and Kanata-Carleton.

“Bonnie has been clear from day one she has a mandate to rebuild this party,” said Liberal strategist Andrew Perez, who notes the latest polling adds to the recent momentum.

“When you have a party that has eight or nine seats that doesn’t enjoy official party status that begins winning not just one, two, and let’s hope three byelections, I think you can read into that.”

While the byelection results could provide another added boost for the Liberals, it is not good news for the New Democrats, who currently form the official opposition. The same polling that has the Liberals and Conservatives in a neck-and-neck race in Milton also shows the NDP is falling behind both parties in voter support across the province.