Lower than expected school enrolment could impact WRDSB budget deficit

The Waterloo Region District School Board’s budget deficit could be higher than the province’s required threshold if enrolment continues to trend down in schools.

As a part of the 2023-2024 Interim Financial Report and Forecast, the board reported that through October there were about 300 fewer students enroled than expected.

“It looks like our enrolment is going to come in a little bit below our budget forecast, approximately 301 (full-time equivalent),” said Superintendent of Business Services and Treasurer of the Board, Nick Landry. “This is primarily concentrated in (Junior Kindergarten) and Grades 1 through 3.”

As of Dec. 15, the board was forecasting a deficit of $6.2 million which is comparable to the board’s summer forecast of $6.3 million. Ontario’s Ministry of Education requires school board deficits to be less than one per cent of their operating revenues.

If low enrolment persists it could contribute to the deficit exceeding one per cent. Student enrolment is the main driver of funding from the province’s Grants for Student Needs.

Trends regarding the costs for short-term supply teachers are also contributing to the concerns.

“If the trends we are seeing in the first three months of operations continue the rest of the year, we are anticipating upwards of a $2.8 million pressure in this budget line,” Landry said. “Everything else, being equal, that could push us up around $8 million deficit this year which would be problematic.”

Despite that, Landry said the board believes enrolment will return to the levels that were projected in the summer.

“We are confident that there is net migration into the region and that will have a positive impact on our enrolment moving forward, but for now for October it looks like we are down a little bit,” Landry said.

Landry made the presentation to WRDSB trustees on Monday. He said there was no single reason for the lower-than-expected enrolment.